1. Who made up the "universe" or polling population of this particular poll?
Bernie Sanders
2. If 25% of people say they are supporting Bernie Sanders and the sampling error is 4.8%, what is the actual range of Sanders's support?
With quick maffs, I have arrived at 20.2 to 29.8 percent.
3. Using the margin of error, describe a possible scenario in which Sanders would not win, but still fits the polls data.
Since Biden's range given with a 4.8% margin of error has some overlap with Bernie's, he could still win the state over Bernie. Polls are also really hard to judge accurately in Nevada.
4. What were the results found in earlier polls taken in Nevada this year?
Previous polls such as the Sulffolk/USA Today/Fox News poll showed Biden winning.
5. What changes took place in Nevada's candidate selection after 2004?
They went from going to primaries to caucuses and got moved earlier in the calendar. Also, due to this new change, previous caucus data is not able to make predictive models of voting behavior.
6. Why does FiveThirtyEight say that it's harder to poll people in Nevada?
Nevada is a unique state in that many people work odd hours, and it's hard to get people to talk. The population is less accessible.
7. Why is it easier to poll the Iowa caucuses than the Nevada caucuses?
The Iowa caucus has always been very monumental in the primary cycle, so it has a longer established tradition of polling and data collection that Nevada lacks.
8. How does Nevada allow early voting if this is a caucus instead of a primary?
They are trying to use new voting methods such as a ranked-choice voting system, which can occur over four days to make it easier for people to vote.
9. Why does Nevada have a fluctuating population?
There is a huge casino and tourist industry in Nevada, which makes it hard to isolate a steady population model to poll. Many also do not have local cell numbers.
10. Why is conducting a poll so much more expensive if you want to have an accurate Nevada poll?
Because of the abundance of night shift workers in Nevada, pollsters would have to operate on a 24-hour clock in order to get an accurate picture of the state.
Bernie Sanders
2. If 25% of people say they are supporting Bernie Sanders and the sampling error is 4.8%, what is the actual range of Sanders's support?
With quick maffs, I have arrived at 20.2 to 29.8 percent.
3. Using the margin of error, describe a possible scenario in which Sanders would not win, but still fits the polls data.
Since Biden's range given with a 4.8% margin of error has some overlap with Bernie's, he could still win the state over Bernie. Polls are also really hard to judge accurately in Nevada.
4. What were the results found in earlier polls taken in Nevada this year?
Previous polls such as the Sulffolk/USA Today/Fox News poll showed Biden winning.
5. What changes took place in Nevada's candidate selection after 2004?
They went from going to primaries to caucuses and got moved earlier in the calendar. Also, due to this new change, previous caucus data is not able to make predictive models of voting behavior.
6. Why does FiveThirtyEight say that it's harder to poll people in Nevada?
Nevada is a unique state in that many people work odd hours, and it's hard to get people to talk. The population is less accessible.
7. Why is it easier to poll the Iowa caucuses than the Nevada caucuses?
The Iowa caucus has always been very monumental in the primary cycle, so it has a longer established tradition of polling and data collection that Nevada lacks.
8. How does Nevada allow early voting if this is a caucus instead of a primary?
They are trying to use new voting methods such as a ranked-choice voting system, which can occur over four days to make it easier for people to vote.
9. Why does Nevada have a fluctuating population?
There is a huge casino and tourist industry in Nevada, which makes it hard to isolate a steady population model to poll. Many also do not have local cell numbers.
10. Why is conducting a poll so much more expensive if you want to have an accurate Nevada poll?
Because of the abundance of night shift workers in Nevada, pollsters would have to operate on a 24-hour clock in order to get an accurate picture of the state.
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